Today: DL 3972 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet today DL 3972 PSC 05:25 → SEA 06:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 3110 PSC 10:49 → SEA 11:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3972 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 05:25	SEA 06:36	8%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 3891 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 15:36	SEA 16:48	16%	6%	0.6%	90%
DL 3992 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 12:32	SEA 13:50	18%	4%	0.6%	85%
OO 3049 SkyWest	PSC 18:02	SEA 19:08	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3110 SkyWest	PSC 10:49	SEA 11:55	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 2165 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PSC 06:15	SEA 07:20	6%	2%	1.9%	94%
AS 2366 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PSC 18:04	SEA 19:10	20%	3%	1.6%	80%
AS 2171 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PSC 10:33	SEA 11:38	33%	2%	0.0%	67%
AS 2306 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PSC 12:56	SEA 14:02	44%	6%	0.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON