Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:53 am at Pasco); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 5578 at 13:35, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5578 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 13:35	SFO 15:44	26%	7%	0.4%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	6h 31m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PSC 10:00 → SLC 12:42DL 3694 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	6h 12m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	PSC 12:56 → SEA 14:02AS 2306 · flown by Horizon	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385	5h 52m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	PSC 18:04 → SEA 19:10AS 2366 · flown by Horizon	2h 24m Seattle	SEA 21:34 → SFO 23:40AS 410	5h 36m	98%	65%
Alaska Details →	PSC 10:33 → SEA 11:38AS 2171 · flown by Horizon	2h 14m Seattle	SEA 13:52 → SFO 16:00AS 688	5h 27m	100%	65%
American Details →	PSC 15:24 → PHX 18:09AA 6220 · flown by SkyWest	2h 14m Phoenix	PHX 20:23 → SFO 22:23AA 686	6h 59m	89%	56%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	79%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PSC 15:59 → PDX 16:50AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	46m Portland	PDX 17:36 → SFO 19:30AS 504	3h 31m	40%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON