tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:41 am at Palm Springs); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2502 Southwest PSP 18:55 LAS 20:04 17% 7% 0.2% no record
WN 4199 Southwest Flight history → PSP 16:10 LAS 17:20 17% 7% 0.2% 77%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PSP 16:07 → SFO 17:50UA 4786 · flown by SkyWest 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406 7h 03m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → PSP 14:37 → SFO 16:18UA 5946 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 19:37 → LAS 21:27UA 1995 6h 50m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43UA 1843 3h 12m Denver DEN 19:55 → LAS 21:10UA 1953 7h 40m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:40 → LAS 18:04DL 1690 5h 41m 93% 68%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → SFO 15:12UA 1430 2h 25m San Francisco SFO 17:37 → LAS 19:27UA 751 5h 57m 93% 68%
SouthwestDetails → PSP 14:15 → OAK 15:40WN 2422 1h 57m Oakland OAK 17:37 → LAS 19:14WN 2274 4h 59m 93% 64%
UnitedDetails → PSP 11:09 → SFO 12:52UA 5660 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m San Francisco SFO 14:21 → LAS 16:11UA 2855 5h 02m 90% 62%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:55 → PHX 14:09AA 2330 3h 55m Phoenix PHX 18:04 → LAS 19:15AA 1022 6h 20m 100% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON