tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:30 am at Palm Springs); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:15, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 6h 27m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 5h 52m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 44m 93% 73%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 12:05 → STS 13:54AS 3213 · flown by SkyWest 3h 41m Santa Rosa STS 17:35 → LAX 19:15AS 3466 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → PSP 16:07 → SFO 17:50UA 4786 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 20:55 → LAX 22:37UA 2850 6h 30m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43UA 1843 1h 22m Denver DEN 18:05 → LAX 19:40UA 2240 6h 10m 90% 69%
UnitedDetails → PSP 11:09 → SFO 12:52UA 5660 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 6h 56m 98% 64%
UnitedDetails → PSP 14:37 → SFO 16:18UA 5946 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 18:45 → LAX 20:29UA 1427 5h 52m 98% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PSP 16:07 → SFO 17:50UA 4786 · flown by SkyWest 55m San Francisco SFO 18:45 → LAX 20:29UA 1427 4h 22m 73% 47%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:43 → DFW 17:50AA 2334 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:44 → LAX 20:07AA 2043 7h 24m 72% 46%
AmericanDetails → PSP 12:55 → PHX 14:09AA 2330 46m Phoenix PHX 14:55 → LAX 16:19AA 2368 3h 24m 64% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON