Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:45 am at Palm Springs); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3949 PSP 17:09 → PHX 18:23 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2562 PSP 19:06 → PHX 20:25 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3949 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PSP 17:09	PHX 18:23	14%	4%	0.3%	91%
OO 6246 SkyWest	PSP 10:35	PHX 11:18	16%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 2330 American Flight history →	PSP 12:55	PHX 14:09	21%	9%	0.3%	91%worse than usual
AA 2333 American Flight history →	PSP 19:37	PHX 20:52	21%	10%	0.3%	75%
AA 2929 American Flight history →	PSP 16:51	PHX 18:05	22%	9%	0.3%	83%
AA 1701 American	PSP 13:15	PHX 14:36	22%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 2562 American Flight history →	PSP 19:06	PHX 20:25	23%	10%	0.3%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON