Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:10 pm at Palm Springs); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: AS 322 at 18:07, 49%.

Nonstops today


AS 322 Alaska	PSP 18:07	SEA 20:49	49%	16%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → SEA 23:59DL 2998	6h 44m	98%	72%
United Details →	PSP 16:07 → SFO 17:50UA 4786 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m San Francisco	SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007	7h 03m	97%	61%
United Details →	PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m San Francisco	SFO 22:45 → SEA 01:15 +1UA 5579 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	96%	52%
Alaska Details →	PSP 15:51 → SFO 17:28AS 3080 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m San Francisco	SFO 20:28 → SEA 22:41AS 591	6h 50m	98%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PSP 16:07 → SFO 17:50UA 4786 · flown by SkyWest	55m San Francisco	SFO 18:45 → SEA 21:13UA 1097	5h 06m	71%	39%
Southwest Details →	PSP 19:30 → SMF 21:05WN 2318	50m Sacramento	SMF 21:55 → SEA 23:55WN 4985	4h 25m	58%	33%
Southwest Details →	PSP 16:10 → LAS 17:20WN 4199	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 18:20 → SEA 20:52WN 9003	4h 42m	75%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON