Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: WN 3535 at 10:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet today WN 3535 PSP 10:20 → SMF 12:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2318 PSP 19:30 → SMF 21:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3535 Southwest	PSP 10:20	SMF 12:01	8%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 488 Southwest	PSP 19:05	SMF 20:47	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2318 Southwest Flight history →	PSP 19:30	SMF 21:05	20%	5%	0.6%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON