Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3401 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3401 PVD 05:55 → BWI 07:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 2785 PVD 17:45 → BWI 19:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3401 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 05:55	BWI 07:25	6%	1%	0.4%	93%
WN 4714 Southwest	PVD 05:55	BWI 07:31	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3589 Southwest	PVD 07:11	BWI 08:48	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3402 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 09:25	BWI 10:50	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 3409 Southwest	PVD 12:35	BWI 14:12	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4117 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 11:35	BWI 13:00	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 3539 Southwest	PVD 08:51	BWI 10:27	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1094 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 12:55	BWI 14:20	10%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 1180 Southwest	PVD 16:30	BWI 18:07	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3196 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 17:35	BWI 19:05	19%	5%	0.7%	62%
WN 2785 Southwest	PVD 17:45	BWI 19:23	20%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON