Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3269 PVD 10:12 → CLT 12:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2318 PVD 16:42 → CLT 19:04 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3269 American	PVD 10:12	CLT 12:37	14%	4%	0.4%	no record
AA 1877 American Flight history →	PVD 14:02	CLT 16:13	16%	4%	0.4%	81%
AA 3010 American	PVD 16:21	CLT 18:36	17%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2336 American Flight history →	PVD 11:42	CLT 13:55	17%	4%	0.4%	73%
AA 2338 American Flight history →	PVD 19:24	CLT 21:44	20%	5%	0.4%	75%
AA 2318 American Flight history →	PVD 16:42	CLT 19:04	21%	5%	0.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON