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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2587 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2587 PVD 06:37 → DCA 08:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 343 PVD 17:42 → DCA 19:15 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time
Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2587 American PVD 06:37 DCA 08:20 9% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 608 Southwest PVD 08:30 DCA 10:09 10% 3% 0.2% no record
WN 1426 Southwest Flight history → PVD 08:30 DCA 10:00 12% 2% 0.2% 88%
AA 5419 American flown by PSA Flight history → PVD 06:00 DCA 07:44 12% 7% 1.5% 81%
AA 4679 American flown by Republic Flight history → PVD 21:07 DCA 22:52 19% 7% 0.9% 65%
WN 2573 Southwest PVD 16:55 DCA 18:35 24% 7% 0.6% no record
AA 5619 American flown by PSA Flight history → PVD 11:57 DCA 13:43 25% 10% 1.0% 71%
AA 5337 American flown by PSA Flight history → PVD 12:00 DCA 13:44 26% 12% 1.2% 62%
AA 5334 American flown by PSA Flight history → PVD 15:15 DCA 16:59 28% 13% 1.2% 63%
WN 3515 Southwest Flight history → PVD 16:50 DCA 18:25 28% 8% 0.6% 34%
AA 5438 American flown by PSA Flight history → PVD 17:08 DCA 18:59 28% 13% 1.2% 52%
OH 5560 PSA PVD 20:22 DCA 22:06 31% 14% 1.3% no record
AA 3142 American PVD 15:32 DCA 17:22 33% 12% 2.1% no record
AA 343 American Flight history → PVD 17:42 DCA 19:15 41% 10% 1.6% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON