Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: OO 3710 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day OO 3710 PVD 05:46 → DTW 07:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4040 PVD 17:00 → DTW 19:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3710 SkyWest	PVD 05:46	DTW 07:59	6%	4%	0.3%	no record
DL 3626 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 05:45	DTW 07:53	6%	4%	0.3%	85%
DL 3961 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 12:43	DTW 14:50	15%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 3723 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 12:57	DTW 15:08	16%	6%	0.6%	64%
OO 3720 SkyWest	PVD 16:50	DTW 19:02	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 4040 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 17:00	DTW 19:11	23%	6%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON