tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:13 am at Providence); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
UA 4504 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record PVD 10:40 IAD 12:16 6% 0% 0.0% 94%
UA 4609 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record PVD 10:25 IAD 12:01 8% 0% 0.0% 92%
UA 6159 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record PVD 14:46 IAD 16:34 21% 10% 2.7% 79%
UA 4078 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record PVD 19:40 IAD 21:21 27% 17% 3.2% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON