Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:15 pm at Providence); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:24, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14DL 2314	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	7h 26m	93%	68%
American Details →	PVD 15:15 → DCA 16:59AA 5334 · flown by PSA	2h 59m Washington	DCA 19:58 → JFK 21:30AA 4474 · flown by Republic	6h 15m	95%	61%
American Details →	PVD 16:42 → CLT 19:04AA 2318	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 20:54 → JFK 23:00AA 1727	6h 18m	89%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON