Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 223 PVD 06:25 → MDW 08:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3410 PVD 19:00 → MDW 20:30 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 223 Southwest	PVD 06:25	MDW 08:13	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3118 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 07:40	MDW 09:05	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
WN 3544 Southwest	PVD 13:30	MDW 15:16	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3410 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 19:00	MDW 20:30	12%	3%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON