Today: UA 5786 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet today UA 5786 PVD 06:00 → ORD 08:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest OO 5251 PVD 16:46 → ORD 18:35 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5786 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 06:00	ORD 08:00	6%	3%	0.5%	96%
AA 360 American Flight history →	PVD 07:08	ORD 08:59	9%	3%	0.4%	81%
OO 5747 SkyWest	PVD 09:53	ORD 11:48	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 3453 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PVD 13:38	ORD 15:30	13%	3%	0.7%	90%
MQ 4212 Envoy	PVD 12:23	ORD 14:04	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3771 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PVD 19:59	ORD 21:44	20%	3%	0.8%	84%
UA 5702 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 17:00	ORD 19:03	23%	6%	0.8%	76%
UA 1935 United	PVD 11:33	ORD 13:09	25%	4%	0.3%	no record
OO 5251 SkyWest	PVD 16:46	ORD 18:35	28%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON