Today: WN 1098 at 10:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet today WN 1098 PWM 10:25 → BWI 12:19 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4538 PWM 17:30 → BWI 19:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1098 Southwest	PWM 10:25	BWI 12:19	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3038 Southwest Flight history →	PWM 10:25	BWI 12:00	9%	2%	0.2%	81%
WN 183 Southwest Flight history →	PWM 15:20	BWI 17:05	15%	3%	0.2%	69%
WN 1159 Southwest	PWM 15:25	BWI 17:20	16%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3414 Southwest Flight history →	PWM 17:20	BWI 19:05	18%	3%	0.2%	76%
WN 4538 Southwest	PWM 17:30	BWI 19:25	20%	3%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON