Today: AA 2966 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet today AA 2966 PWM 07:16 → CLT 09:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 497 PWM 19:22 → CLT 21:57 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2966 American Flight history →	PWM 07:16	CLT 09:46	13%	3%	0.3%	92%
AA 1747 American	PWM 12:58	CLT 15:31	15%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2348 American Flight history →	PWM 14:25	CLT 16:59	19%	6%	1.3%	76%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	PWM 18:01	CLT 20:36	20%	6%	1.8%	71%
AA 1744 American	PWM 16:27	CLT 18:54	22%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 497 American Flight history →	PWM 19:22	CLT 21:57	24%	6%	1.8%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON