Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:10 pm at Portland); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Dulles, leaving 19:16, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic	1h 09m Dulles	IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495	7h 14m	92%	79%
American Details →	PWM 19:34 → ORD 21:40AA 4774 · flown by Republic	55m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1387	6h 43m	86%	54%
Delta Details →	PWM 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 488	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	7h 24m	75%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON