tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:34 pm at Portland); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:55, 36% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2353 American Flight history → PWM 17:33 DFW 20:56 37% 12% 0.6% 70%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821 1h 52m Detroit DTW 20:46 → DFW 22:32DL 1207 6h 40m 94% 69%
UnitedDetails → PWM 15:37 → DEN 18:16UA 287 2h 37m Denver DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239 9h 22m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:00 → ORD 18:48UA 1828 1h 02m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 6h 36m 75% 63%
AmericanDetails → PWM 18:01 → CLT 20:36AA 2352 1h 57m Charlotte CLT 22:33 → DFW 00:35 +1AA 2302 7h 34m 91% 63%
UnitedDetails → PWM 14:20 → IAD 16:30UA 3459 · flown by Republic 1h 30m Dulles IAD 18:00 → DFW 20:25UA 2116 7h 05m 94% 62%
DeltaDetails → PWM 14:14 → LGA 15:12DL 5346 · flown by Endeavor 3h 43m New York LGA 18:55 → DFW 22:02DL 352 8h 48m 96% 60%
AmericanDetails → PWM 14:56 → PHL 16:53AA 2354 3h 37m Philadelphia PHL 20:30 → DFW 23:17AA 629 9h 21m 96% 59%
AmericanDetails → PWM 14:25 → CLT 16:59AA 2348 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 19:39 → DFW 21:32AA 1630 8h 07m 95% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PWM 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 1182 50m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 6h 36m 72% 60%
AmericanDetails → PWM 14:56 → PHL 16:53AA 2354 56m Philadelphia PHL 17:49 → DFW 20:34AA 2533 6h 38m 66% 38%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479 57m Atlanta ATL 17:43 → DFW 19:08DL 1827 6h 13m 59% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON