Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3494 PWM 09:44 → IAD 11:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3582 PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3494 Republic	PWM 09:44	IAD 11:50	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 3522 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 05:15	IAD 07:20	11%	4%	1.4%	95%
UA 1926 United Flight history →	PWM 05:15	IAD 07:00	11%	4%	0.8%	94%
UA 3465 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 09:55	IAD 11:46	11%	3%	0.8%	86%
UA 3459 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 14:20	IAD 16:30	12%	5%	0.8%	87%
YX 3453 Republic	PWM 14:39	IAD 16:53	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 3582 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 19:16	IAD 21:14	12%	5%	0.9%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON