Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:48 pm at Portland); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5399 at 16:12, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5399 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PWM 16:12	JFK 17:36	33%	11%	0.6%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PWM 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 488	47m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → JFK 00:50 +1DL 1632	5h 51m	43%	32%
American Details →	PWM 17:18 → DCA 19:10AA 2355	48m Washington	DCA 19:58 → JFK 21:30AA 4474 · flown by Republic	4h 12m	46%	31%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON