Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:45 pm at Portland); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via BWI, leaving 15:20, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PWM 15:20 → BWI 17:05WN 183	3h 51m Baltimore	BWI 20:56 → MDW 22:12WN 1073	7h 52m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	PWM 17:20 → BWI 19:05WN 3414	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 20:55 → MDW 22:00WN 999	5h 40m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON