tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 11:47, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1766 Delta Flight history → PWM 11:47 MSP 13:49 11% 3% 0.7% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:15 → IAD 07:21UA 3522 · flown by Republic 1h 24m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MSP 10:36UA 3649 · flown by Republic 6h 21m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:11AA 4391 · flown by Republic 3h 36m Chicago ORD 11:47 → MSP 13:32AA 3375 · flown by Envoy 8h 32m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:15 → IAD 07:00UA 1926 1h 40m Dulles IAD 08:40 → MSP 10:24UA 2604 6h 09m 96% 86%
SouthwestDetails → PWM 05:35 → BWI 07:15WN 4674 3h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:25 → MSP 12:11WN 2545 7h 36m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 723 2h 25m Chicago ORD 10:25 → MSP 12:17UA 5684 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor 3h 51m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 8h 30m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:25 → LGA 07:54DL 5799 · flown by Republic 3h 16m New York LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 7h 45m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 8h 50m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PWM 06:00 → ORD 08:00UA 723 50m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805 5h 36m 73% 67%
AmericanDetails → PWM 17:18 → DCA 19:10AA 2355 56m Washington DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54AA 5506 · flown by PSA 5h 36m 61% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON