tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:54 am at Rapid City); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: UA 1598 at 11:19 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet today UA 1598 RAP 11:19 → DEN 12:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5947 RAP 16:36 → DEN 18:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time
Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 1598 United RAP 11:19 DEN 12:52 16% 4% 0.2% no record
UA 1829 United Flight history → RAP 11:20 DEN 12:48 16% 4% 0.2% 85%
UA 5708 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → RAP 10:23 DEN 12:00 17% 7% 0.2% 78%
UA 5742 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → RAP 12:35 DEN 14:14 21% 7% 0.2% 90%worse than usual
UA 5884 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → RAP 09:00 DEN 10:35 21% 6% 0.2% 74%
UA 5805 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → RAP 15:31 DEN 17:10 23% 7% 0.2% 67%
UA 5671 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → RAP 17:53 DEN 19:37 26% 7% 0.2% 77%
UA 5947 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → RAP 16:36 DEN 18:20 28% 8% 0.2% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON