Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today MQ 3788 RAP 12:58 → DFW 16:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3762 RAP 16:55 → DFW 20:22 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3788 Envoy	RAP 12:58	DFW 16:26	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3764 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 12:41	DFW 16:05	16%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 3532 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 17:06	DFW 20:26	20%	4%	0.8%	74%
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 16:55	DFW 20:22	21%	4%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON