Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at Rapid City); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 17:53, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RAP 17:53 → DEN 19:37UA 5671 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	5h 06m	79%	58%
American Details →	RAP 17:05 → DFW 20:25AA 3532 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	5h 52m	89%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON