Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3767 RAP 15:25 → ORD 18:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 795 RAP 13:39 → ORD 16:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3767 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 15:25	ORD 18:59	17%	4%	0.4%	81%
UA 1623 United Flight history →	RAP 13:35	ORD 16:59	23%	7%	0.2%	66%
UA 795 United	RAP 13:39	ORD 16:55	25%	6%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON