tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:38 pm at Rapid City); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:31, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RAP 14:31 → MSP 17:07DL 3967 · flown by SkyWest 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 6h 35m 87% 65%
AmericanDetails → RAP 15:25 → ORD 18:59AA 3767 · flown by Envoy 3h 36m Chicago ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 +1AA 2786 9h 49m 96% 64%
UnitedDetails → RAP 15:31 → DEN 17:10UA 5805 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m Denver DEN 21:05 → PHX 22:13UA 1194 7h 42m 97% 63%
UnitedDetails → RAP 16:36 → DEN 18:20UA 5947 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Denver DEN 20:59 → PHX 21:59UA 1236 6h 23m 91% 57%
AmericanDetails → RAP 17:05 → DFW 20:25AA 3532 · flown by Envoy 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → PHX 23:28AA 2319 7h 23m 98% 51%
AmericanDetails → RAP 16:55 → DFW 20:22AA 3762 · flown by Envoy 2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:51 → PHX 23:33AA 1931 7h 38m 95% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RAP 16:36 → DEN 18:20UA 5947 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Denver DEN 19:32 → PHX 20:32UA 1729 4h 56m 72% 46%
UnitedDetails → RAP 15:31 → DEN 17:10UA 5805 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Denver DEN 18:27 → PHX 19:26UA 1507 4h 55m 71% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON