Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:43 am at Redmond)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 3223 at 11:26, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3223 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 11:26	BUR 13:31	20%	6%	0.6%	85%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	2h 31m Denver	DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411	7h 29m	91%	67%
Alaska Details →	RDM 12:34 → PDX 13:35AS 3074 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	4h 39m	85%	66%
United Details →	RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m San Francisco	SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367	5h 56m	94%	65%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 02m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → BUR 20:01UA 2001	6h 12m	98%	61%
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:28 → SEA 14:40AS 276	3h 18m Seattle	SEA 17:58 → BUR 20:39AS 1372	7h 11m	100%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest	55m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → BUR 20:01UA 2001	4h 10m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON