Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:46 am at Redmond); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2350 at 13:14, 31%.

Nonstops today


UA 2350 United Flight history →	RDM 13:14	DEN 16:42	31%	9%	0.4%	85%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Redmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	7h 55m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → DEN 20:01DL 1586	6h 46m	98%	73%
United Details →	RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	7h 56m	92%	72%
American Details →	RDM 13:48 → PHX 16:16AA 3770 · flown by Envoy	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 19:11 → DEN 22:03AA 3255	7h 15m	100%	60%
American Details →	RDM 15:07 → PHX 17:39AA 3929 · flown by Envoy	1h 21m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → DEN 21:51AA 1638	5h 44m	91%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 17:49 → SEA 19:10AS 3124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 20:11 → DEN 23:59AS 642	5h 10m	53%	30%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	47m San Francisco	SFO 16:19 → DEN 19:52UA 1835	5h 03m	45%	30%
Alaska Details →	RDM 12:34 → PDX 13:35AS 3074 · flown by SkyWest	55m Portland	PDX 14:30 → DEN 18:09AS 1809	4h 35m	38%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON