Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3074 RDM 12:34 → PDX 13:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 3329 RDM 12:40 → PDX 13:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3074 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 12:34	PDX 13:35	11%	4%	0.3%	93%
OO 3329 SkyWest	RDM 12:40	PDX 13:43	11%	4%	0.3%	no record
AS 2167 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RDM 16:00	PDX 16:50	4%	4%	0.0%	96%
AS 2043 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RDM 05:25	PDX 06:15	5%	1%	1.0%	95%
AS 2218 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RDM 19:49	PDX 20:40	17%	2%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON