Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:04 am at Redmond); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3770 at 13:48, 20%.

Nonstops today


AA 3770 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 13:48	PHX 16:16	20%	8%	0.5%	80%
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 15:07	PHX 17:38	20%	8%	0.5%	89%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PHX 18:07DL 1451	5h 52m	97%	78%
United Details →	RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest	3h 22m San Francisco	SFO 21:01 → PHX 23:01UA 1653	7h 10m	93%	72%
Alaska Details →	RDM 16:00 → PDX 16:50AS 2167 · flown by Horizon	58m Portland	PDX 17:48 → PHX 20:30AS 723	4h 30m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698	8h 02m	95%	63%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 53m San Francisco	SFO 19:25 → PHX 21:39UA 2347	7h 50m	98%	63%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	7h 01m	98%	62%
United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	3h 13m Denver	DEN 19:55 → PHX 21:02UA 2655	7h 48m	96%	62%
Alaska Details →	RDM 17:49 → SEA 19:10AS 3124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Seattle	SEA 20:50 → PHX 23:49AS 644	6h 00m	93%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 12:34 → PDX 13:35AS 3074 · flown by SkyWest	53m Portland	PDX 14:28 → PHX 17:11AS 716	4h 37m	65%	48%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	53m Seattle	SEA 11:50 → PHX 14:57AS 1371	5h 13m	60%	32%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	53m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	4h 50m	47%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON