Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:44 am at Redmond)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3334 at 17:13, 28%.

Nonstops today


OO 3334 SkyWest	RDM 17:13	SAN 19:38	28%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	2h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252	5h 51m	96%	69%
United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	2h 38m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540	7h 32m	93%	57%
United Details →	RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 21:20 → SAN 23:13UA 442	7h 22m	94%	56%
United Details →	RDM 19:39 → SFO 21:27UA 5534 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m San Francisco	SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142	4h 52m	76%	55%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 28m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → SAN 20:53UA 1343	7h 04m	98%	54%
Alaska Details →	RDM 12:34 → PDX 13:35AS 3074 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Portland	PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29AS 1312	4h 55m	85%	54%
American Details →	RDM 15:08 → PHX 17:39AA 3929 · flown by Envoy	2h 41m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559	6h 26m	98%	48%
Alaska Details →	RDM 17:49 → SEA 19:10AS 3124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 58m Seattle	SEA 21:08 → SAN 23:55AS 600	6h 06m	97%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 17:49 → SEA 19:10AS 3124 · flown by SkyWest	57m Seattle	SEA 20:07 → SAN 22:54AS 254	5h 05m	61%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON