Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 37–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 4141 RDM 19:25 → SEA 20:48 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 3435 RDM 18:12 → SEA 19:30 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 4141 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 19:25	SEA 20:48	37%	10%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
AS 3124 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 17:49	SEA 19:10	39%	12%	1.0%	68%
OO 3435 SkyWest	RDM 18:12	SEA 19:30	39%	11%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON