Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Today: UA 702 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet today UA 702 RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3064 RDM 14:05 → SFO 15:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 702 United Flight history →	RDM 05:55	SFO 07:33	7%	3%	0.4%	94%
UA 5534 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 19:39	SFO 21:27	16%	6%	1.0%	64%
UA 1986 United	RDM 19:15	SFO 20:54	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2262 United Flight history →	RDM 13:49	SFO 15:32	22%	6%	0.7%	51%
OO 3361 SkyWest	RDM 18:24	SFO 20:08	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 4739 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 15:51	SFO 17:39	22%	6%	0.8%	72%
OO 3064 SkyWest	RDM 14:05	SFO 15:51	25%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON