Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:34 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 10 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2026 at 15:35, 24%.

Safest bet today DL 2026 RDU 15:35 → ATL 17:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 2621 RDU 18:27 → ATL 20:01 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2026 Delta Flight history →	RDU 15:35	ATL 17:05	24%	6%	0.4%	86%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:25	ATL 19:01	31%	5%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
DL 2600 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:29	ATL 20:06	33%	6%	0.4%	85%worse than usual
DL 1097 Delta Flight history →	RDU 19:59	ATL 21:39	33%	6%	0.4%	78%worse than usual
DL 2621 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:27	ATL 20:01	35%	6%	0.4%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON