Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:08 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 7 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4489 RDU 15:59 → BNA 16:47 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest DL 5152 RDU 18:09 → BNA 18:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4489 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 15:59	BNA 16:47	15%	4%	0.2%	75%
WN 733 Southwest	RDU 16:20	BNA 17:06	16%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 1546 Southwest	RDU 20:45	BNA 21:30	18%	4%	0.1%	no record
YX 4421 Republic	RDU 17:13	BNA 18:09	18%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3490 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 16:05	BNA 16:40	19%	4%	0.1%	50%
WN 3421 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 21:15	BNA 21:45	22%	4%	0.1%	61%
DL 5152 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 18:09	BNA 18:49	22%	7%	0.3%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON