Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:50 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: DL 1033 at 12:55 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–40%.

Safest bet today DL 1033 RDU 12:55 → BOS 14:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 2384 RDU 17:18 → BOS 19:17 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1033 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:55	BOS 14:59	22%	8%	0.4%	75%
DL 2393 Delta Flight history →	RDU 20:35	BOS 22:39	26%	9%	0.5%	73%
DL 1075 Delta Flight history →	RDU 16:05	BOS 18:17	36%	12%	0.4%	67%
B6 2184 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 14:15	BOS 16:15	39%	14%	0.5%	64%
B6 2384 JetBlue	RDU 17:18	BOS 19:17	40%	19%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON