Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3557 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 3557 RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3425 RDU 20:20 → BWI 21:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3557 Southwest	RDU 06:10	BWI 07:30	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3422 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 06:10	BWI 07:15	5%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 1552 Southwest	RDU 08:40	BWI 10:01	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4550 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 08:40	BWI 09:50	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 1444 Southwest	RDU 11:40	BWI 13:01	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1059 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 11:20	BWI 12:30	13%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 297 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 13:20	BWI 14:35	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 3590 Southwest	RDU 13:55	BWI 15:15	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1063 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 17:40	BWI 18:50	15%	4%	0.7%	68%
WN 552 Southwest	RDU 16:35	BWI 17:55	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 696 Southwest	RDU 20:20	BWI 21:41	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3425 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 20:20	BWI 21:30	20%	6%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON