Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:03 am at Raleigh/Durham)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today


DL 4911 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 14:55	CVG 16:41	20%	8%	0.6%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RDU 08:05 → MDW 09:00WN 3432	4h 00m Chicago	MDW 13:00 → CVG 15:10WN 1247	7h 05m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	RDU 08:40 → BWI 09:50WN 4550	3h 30m Baltimore	BWI 13:20 → CVG 15:02WN 4393	6h 22m	100%	87%
American Details →	RDU 18:24 → ORD 20:07AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 22:28 → CVG 00:53 +1AA 4737 · flown by Republic	6h 29m	94%	86%
American Details →	RDU 16:14 → ORD 17:59AA 4563 · flown by Republic	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 21:02 → CVG 23:26AA 3366 · flown by Envoy	7h 12m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	RDU 11:20 → BWI 12:30WN 1059	2h 50m Baltimore	BWI 15:20 → CVG 16:55WN 760	5h 35m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	7h 04m	98%	84%
American Details →	RDU 15:45 → ORD 17:04AA 2949	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → CVG 22:00AA 3690 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	RDU 18:29 → ATL 20:06DL 2600	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 10m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor	47m New York	LGA 13:59 → CVG 16:11DL 4949 · flown by Endeavor	4h 42m	49%	30%
American Details →	RDU 17:04 → DFW 19:18AA 2091	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → CVG 23:26AA 1266	6h 22m	47%	29%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor	1h 18m New York	LGA 20:10 → CVG 22:35DL 5517 · flown by Endeavor	5h 30m	53%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON