Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:54 am at Raleigh/Durham)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1375 Southwest	RDU 09:25	DAL 11:31	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 936 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 12:45	DAL 14:25	18%	3%	0.6%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RDU 06:25 → STL 07:30WN 3435	1h 00m St Louis	STL 08:30 → DAL 10:21WN 987	4h 56m	97%	91%
Southwest Details →	RDU 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 4083	1h 55m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	7h 25m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:35 → BNA 07:05WN 3418	1h 07m Nashville	BNA 08:12 → DAL 10:17WN 523	4h 42m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	RDU 06:10 → BWI 07:15WN 3422	1h 30m Baltimore	BWI 08:45 → DAL 11:11WN 698	6h 01m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	RDU 05:05 → HOU 06:50WN 4771	1h 10m Houston	HOU 08:00 → DAL 09:10WN 8	5h 05m	94%	86%
Southwest Details →	RDU 08:05 → MDW 09:00WN 3432	3h 20m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 30m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 05m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	RDU 17:40 → BWI 18:50WN 1063	2h 23m Baltimore	BWI 21:13 → DAL 23:41WN 991	7h 01m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RDU 19:55 → STL 21:00WN 3457	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	4h 35m	73%	57%
Delta Details →	RDU 18:27 → ATL 20:01DL 2621	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	4h 58m	74%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON