Today: AA 2605 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet today AA 2605 RDU 05:16 → DFW 07:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2343 RDU 11:48 → DFW 14:13 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2605 American Flight history →	RDU 05:16	DFW 07:27	9%	4%	0.7%	90%
AA 1088 American Flight history →	RDU 06:19	DFW 08:39	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 1217 American Flight history →	RDU 07:47	DFW 10:00	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 2400 American Flight history →	RDU 14:20	DFW 16:33	25%	5%	1.2%	77%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	RDU 14:22	DFW 16:34	25%	5%	1.2%	72%
AA 2366 American Flight history →	RDU 11:41	DFW 13:45	30%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 2683 American Flight history →	RDU 11:48	DFW 13:59	30%	8%	0.7%	85%worse than usual
AA 2371 American Flight history →	RDU 16:53	DFW 19:08	30%	5%	1.2%	61%
AA 2361 American Flight history →	RDU 19:31	DFW 21:43	30%	5%	1.2%	49%
AA 1888 American Flight history →	RDU 19:27	DFW 21:49	31%	6%	1.0%	65%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	RDU 17:05	DFW 19:19	33%	6%	1.2%	76%
F9 2343 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 11:48	DFW 14:13	38%	12%	1.1%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON