Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: B6 2625 at 06:20, 13%.

Safest bet today B6 2625 RDU 06:20 → FLL 08:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 2177 RDU 10:33 → FLL 12:53 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2625 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 06:20	FLL 08:26	13%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 1038 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:59	FLL 14:05	24%	6%	0.2%	81%
B6 725 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 10:19	FLL 12:21	35%	11%	0.6%	62%
B6 2925 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 14:00	FLL 16:09	37%	11%	0.6%	73%
F9 2177 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 10:33	FLL 12:53	37%	17%	1.1%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON