Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:28 am at Raleigh/Durham); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 2816 at 11:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2816 Southwest	RDU 11:20	HOU 13:23	18%	3%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RDU 19:55 → STL 21:00WN 3457	1h 25m St Louis	STL 22:25 → HOU 00:35 +1WN 3004	5h 40m	90%	71%
Southwest Details →	RDU 13:20 → BWI 14:35WN 297	3h 50m Baltimore	BWI 18:25 → HOU 20:56WN 1011	8h 36m	100%	71%
Southwest Details →	RDU 13:40 → MDW 14:40WN 4516	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 17:40 → HOU 20:15WN 2785	7h 35m	98%	69%
Southwest Details →	RDU 12:45 → DAL 14:25WN 936	2h 05m Dallas	DAL 16:30 → HOU 17:45WN 41	6h 00m	98%	69%
American Details →	RDU 14:21 → DFW 16:34AA 2693	1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:05AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	94%	68%
Southwest Details →	RDU 10:40 → BNA 11:15WN 684	1h 33m Nashville	BNA 12:48 → HOU 15:04WN 1661	5h 24m	91%	67%
American Details →	RDU 11:47 → DFW 13:59AA 2683	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	7h 32m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 07m	95%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RDU 21:15 → BNA 21:45WN 3421	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 22:45 → HOU 00:50 +1WN 4474	4h 35m	75%	51%
Southwest Details →	RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3766	50m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → HOU 00:12 +1WN 4058	5h 27m	62%	44%
American Details →	RDU 19:26 → DFW 21:49AA 1888	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 30m	57%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON