Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1789 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1789 RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1535 RDU 10:32 → IAD 11:43 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1789 United Flight history →	RDU 06:00	IAD 07:11	8%	2%	0.8%	96%
UA 2642 United Flight history →	RDU 19:37	IAD 20:52	14%	7%	0.8%	83%
YX 3556 Republic	RDU 15:03	IAD 16:25	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 3520 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 19:45	IAD 21:06	18%	5%	0.7%	72%
UA 1535 United Flight history →	RDU 10:32	IAD 11:43	22%	6%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
UA 6265 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:00	IAD 16:21	24%	17%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON