Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:59 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37% (calm day: 26%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 19:59, 63% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 19:59 → ATL 21:39DL 1097	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → IND 00:41 +1DL 2657	4h 42m	83%	63%
American Details →	RDU 20:11 → CLT 21:11AA 1904	1h 17m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → IND 00:09 +1AA 1033	3h 58m	79%	49%
Southwest Details →	RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3766	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 22:15 → IND 00:19 +1WN 2896	4h 34m	80%	44%
Southwest Details →	RDU 20:20 → BWI 21:30WN 3425	1h 25m Baltimore	BWI 22:55 → IND 00:51 +1WN 1020	4h 31m	81%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 20:08 → CLT 21:20AA 2394	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → IND 00:09 +1AA 1033	4h 01m	62%	38%
Southwest Details →	RDU 20:20 → BWI 21:30WN 3425	55m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → IND 00:20 +1WN 4216	4h 00m	60%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON