tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:24 am at Raleigh/Durham); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:33, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542 7h 37m 94% 81%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 16:55 → DEN 18:40WN 3428 3h 15m Denver DEN 21:55 → LAS 22:55WN 1567 9h 00m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → RDU 15:00 → IAD 16:21UA 6265 · flown by Mesa 3h 49m Dulles IAD 20:10 → LAS 22:19UA 1764 10h 19m 92% 79%
DeltaDetails → RDU 12:59 → DTW 14:45DL 2164 3h 55m Detroit DTW 18:40 → LAS 19:54DL 544 9h 55m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → RDU 14:46 → MSP 16:41DL 2521 2h 18m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 8h 34m 96% 76%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3766 2h 15m Chicago MDW 22:55 → LAS 00:40 +1WN 3426 7h 55m 92% 76%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 17:40 → BWI 18:50WN 1063 2h 35m Baltimore BWI 21:25 → LAS 23:35WN 977 8h 55m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → RDU 16:22 → DEN 18:25UA 2288 2h 38m Denver DEN 21:03 → LAS 22:11UA 624 8h 49m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → RDU 19:30 → AUS 21:35WN 3417 1h 05m Austin AUS 22:40 → LAS 23:37WN 4578 7h 07m 58% 46%
AmericanDetails → RDU 19:31 → DFW 21:43AA 2361 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:33 → LAS 23:26AA 624 6h 55m 65% 41%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:29 → CLT 19:45AA 2379 47m Charlotte CLT 20:32 → LAS 22:13AA 2199 6h 44m 56% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON