Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:24 am at Raleigh/Durham); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: DL 462 at 19:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–38%.

Safest bet today DL 462 RDU 19:00 → LAX 21:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1569 RDU 17:24 → LAX 19:45 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 462 Delta Flight history →	RDU 19:00	LAX 21:23	20%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 508 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:40	LAX 20:46	22%	5%	0.7%	67%
AA 2299 American	RDU 20:25	LAX 22:47	31%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 1569 American Flight history →	RDU 17:24	LAX 19:45	38%	8%	0.3%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	RDU 08:05 → MDW 09:00WN 3432	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → LAX 12:30WN 2433	7h 25m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	7h 14m	97%	71%
American Details →	RDU 07:47 → DFW 10:00AA 1217	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:55 → LAX 12:23AA 3181	7h 36m	85%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON