tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:22 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 18:24, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:24 → ORD 20:07AA 3696 · flown by Envoy 2h 33m Chicago ORD 22:40 → MCI 00:22 +1AA 4745 · flown by Republic 6h 58m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → RDU 17:12 → ORD 18:42UA 630 2h 43m Chicago ORD 21:25 → MCI 23:17UA 4723 · flown by SkyWest 7h 05m 92% 73%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 17:40 → BWI 18:50WN 1063 3h 50m Baltimore BWI 22:40 → MCI 00:37 +1WN 1052 7h 57m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → RDU 19:14 → ORD 21:11AA 4492 · flown by Republic 1h 24m Chicago ORD 22:35 → MCI 00:19 +1AA 3695 · flown by Envoy 6h 05m 85% 73%
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 7h 33m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → RDU 16:40 → DCA 17:59AA 5367 · flown by PSA 3h 00m Washington DCA 20:59 → MCI 22:49AA 4694 · flown by Republic 7h 09m 86% 70%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 16:05 → BNA 16:40WN 3490 2h 16m Nashville BNA 18:56 → MCI 20:46WN 611 5h 41m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → RDU 16:51 → IAH 18:58UA 2407 1h 27m Houston IAH 20:25 → MCI 22:31UA 1027 6h 40m 90% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:56 → DCA 19:15AA 5347 · flown by PSA 1h 44m Washington DCA 20:59 → MCI 22:49AA 4694 · flown by Republic 5h 53m 63% 52%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3766 50m Chicago MDW 21:30 → MCI 23:02WN 1559 4h 17m 65% 49%
AmericanDetails → RDU 19:27 → DFW 21:49AA 1888 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 5h 56m 64% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON