Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:05 am at Raleigh/Durham); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: WN 2421 at 12:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet today WN 2421 RDU 12:30 → MDW 13:41 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3766 RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2421 Southwest	RDU 12:30	MDW 13:41	12%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 4516 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 13:40	MDW 14:40	17%	3%	0.1%	52%
WN 4291 Southwest	RDU 19:20	MDW 20:29	22%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3766 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 19:45	MDW 20:40	25%	4%	0.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON